dhawalorg
MCPAgent-native infrastructureImmutable claim archive · as of 2026-08-22

The machine floor.

The desk publishes the exact state, analog, signal, and thesis payload behind each daily claim. Every payload has a permanent URL and SHA-256 hash. Aggregate tool traffic remains public without recording who asked or what they typed.

Choose your surface

This is the audit trail.

Most readers do not need hashes to use the desk. This page is for developers, researchers, and agents who want to verify the exact archived evidence behind a claim.

Live protocol proof

One desk. Two readers.

This browser sends a real MCP tools/call to the public endpoint. The returned regime is composed from the same sourced macro and breadth routes used by the human desk.

POST /mcptools/callget_regime/api/macro + /api/breadth
01 · requestJSON-RPC 2.0
{
  "jsonrpc": "2.0",
  "id": "machine-floor-regime",
  "method": "tools/call",
  "params": {
    "name": "get_regime",
    "arguments": {}
  }
}
02 · responseQueued after first paint
Macro regime 76.4/100 · risk-on
5 of 5 legs reporting · as of 2026-08-21
Source: FRED and Yahoo Finance
Method: Equal-weight mean of the finite volatility, breadth, credit, 2s10s, and dollar leg scores.
HTTP pendingTiming pending
Raw JSON-RPC response
Waiting for the live response. The archived evidence remains visible above.
Number76.4 / 100
Observation2026-08-21 · n=5/5 legs
SourceFRED and Yahoo Finance
MethodFive-leg composite
Machine Floor v2 · as of 2026-08-22

Every claim leaves evidence.

The mutable latest files are conveniences. The evidence record is content-addressed and immutable. Recompute SHA-256 over the exact JSON payload and compare it with the printed hash.

MCP tools
23 · n=23
Claim snapshots
55 · n=55
Theses archived
55 · n=55
Falsifiers evaluated
54 · n=55
get_state_vector2026-08-22

State Vector

Number
25 dimensions · n=25
Sample
4,941 dated sessions · n=4941
Formula
Each current reading carries its component formula, prior-window z-score, percentile, and sample size.
SHA-256 payload
705ae0adfcbee3cc1ae88c05df9c49715a1e9ed633d79d4f653673b144afa10d
find_analogs2026-08-22

Analog Engine

Number
50 matched states · n=50
Sample
4,857 eligible sessions · n=4857
Formula
Cosine distance over shared finite dimensions after each date is standardized against only its prior 252 sessions.
SHA-256 payload
361346cba259ba720f46221ff08a024cc383039fe5d4f073b300ee9988d02227
get_signal_performance2026-08-22

Signal Performance

Number
7 definitions · n=7
Sample
1 published from n=7 audited definitions
Formula
Walk-forward folds, 21-session independence, publication floor n=50.
SHA-256 payload
fcf21556b651d51050b32ef94d0d43a65660c79c3c0223983edecda80c8a51ae
Public accountability

The desk keeps its own score.

Each thesis keeps the original anomaly, conditional history, falsifier, exact evidence payloads, and the first eligible print used to decide whether the falsifier fired.

2026-08-22

cotCommercialPercentile.GBPUSD

PENDING · n=0

COT commercial percentile (GBPUSD) printed 40.0 percentile, 2.96 standard deviations below its prior 52-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

1 components agree with the risk-off direction, 5 disagree, and 3 have no vote. Component sample n=9.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +0.86% median, 66.0% positive hit rate, and -3.19% worst decile; ES had a +0.79% median, 60.0% positive hit rate, and -3.41% worst decile.

Falsifier

The read is invalid if COT commercial percentile (GBPUSD) records at or above 77.2 percentile, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=52 observations, on its next weekly print.

No eligible observation after 2026-08-22. Evaluation sample n=0.

2026-08-12

creditHygLqdRatio

HELD · n=1

HYG/LQD printed 0.750165, 3.17 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

4 components agree with the risk-on direction, 2 disagree, and 3 have no vote. Component sample n=9.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +0.56% median, 58.0% positive hit rate, and -4.65% worst decile; ES had a +0.33% median, 56.0% positive hit rate, and -4.65% worst decile.

Falsifier

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.723276, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed 0.74885 on 2026-08-13. Evaluation sample n=1.

2026-08-11

creditHygLqdRatio

HELD · n=1

HYG/LQD printed 0.750094, 2.80 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

3 components agree with the risk-on direction, 2 disagree, and 4 have no vote. Component sample n=9.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +0.25% median, 54.0% positive hit rate, and -4.75% worst decile; ES had a +0.18% median, 52.0% positive hit rate, and -4.82% worst decile.

Falsifier

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.726235, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed 0.750188 on 2026-08-12. Evaluation sample n=1.

2026-08-11

creditHygLqdRatio

HELD · n=1

HYG/LQD printed 0.750094, 2.80 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

3 components agree with the risk-on direction, 2 disagree, and 4 have no vote. Component sample n=9.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +0.25% median, 54.0% positive hit rate, and -4.75% worst decile; ES had a +0.18% median, 52.0% positive hit rate, and -4.82% worst decile.

Falsifier

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.726235, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed 0.750188 on 2026-08-12. Evaluation sample n=1.

2026-08-10

creditHygLqdRatio

HELD · n=1

HYG/LQD printed 0.750094, 2.80 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

3 components agree with the risk-on direction, 2 disagree, and 4 have no vote. Component sample n=9.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +0.25% median, 54.0% positive hit rate, and -4.75% worst decile; ES had a +0.18% median, 52.0% positive hit rate, and -4.82% worst decile.

Falsifier

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.726235, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed 0.750165 on 2026-08-11. Evaluation sample n=1.

2026-08-10

creditHygLqdRatio

HELD · n=1

HYG/LQD printed 0.750094, 2.80 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

3 components agree with the risk-on direction, 2 disagree, and 4 have no vote. Component sample n=9.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +0.25% median, 54.0% positive hit rate, and -4.75% worst decile; ES had a +0.18% median, 52.0% positive hit rate, and -4.82% worst decile.

Falsifier

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.726235, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed 0.750165 on 2026-08-11. Evaluation sample n=1.

2026-08-10

creditHygLqdRatio

HELD · n=1

HYG/LQD printed 0.750094, 2.80 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

3 components agree with the risk-on direction, 2 disagree, and 4 have no vote. Component sample n=9.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +0.25% median, 54.0% positive hit rate, and -4.75% worst decile; ES had a +0.18% median, 52.0% positive hit rate, and -4.82% worst decile.

Falsifier

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.726235, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed 0.750165 on 2026-08-11. Evaluation sample n=1.

2026-08-10

creditHygLqdRatio

HELD · n=1

HYG/LQD printed 0.750094, 2.80 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

3 components agree with the risk-on direction, 2 disagree, and 4 have no vote. Component sample n=9.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +0.25% median, 54.0% positive hit rate, and -4.75% worst decile; ES had a +0.18% median, 52.0% positive hit rate, and -4.82% worst decile.

Falsifier

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.726235, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed 0.750165 on 2026-08-11. Evaluation sample n=1.

2026-08-10

creditHygLqdRatio

HELD · n=1

HYG/LQD printed 0.750094, 2.80 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

3 components agree with the risk-on direction, 2 disagree, and 4 have no vote. Component sample n=9.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +0.25% median, 54.0% positive hit rate, and -4.75% worst decile; ES had a +0.18% median, 52.0% positive hit rate, and -4.82% worst decile.

Falsifier

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.726235, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed 0.750165 on 2026-08-11. Evaluation sample n=1.

2026-07-22

creditHygLqdRatio

HELD · n=1

HYG/LQD printed 0.745477, 2.74 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

0 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 6 have no vote. Component sample n=9.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +0.84% median, 56.0% positive hit rate, and -3.01% worst decile; ES had a +0.80% median, 56.0% positive hit rate, and -3.11% worst decile.

Falsifier

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725583, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed 0.745234 on 2026-07-23. Evaluation sample n=1.

2026-07-22

creditHygLqdRatio

HELD · n=1

HYG/LQD printed 0.745477, 2.74 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

0 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 6 have no vote. Component sample n=9.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +0.84% median, 56.0% positive hit rate, and -3.01% worst decile; ES had a +0.80% median, 56.0% positive hit rate, and -3.11% worst decile.

Falsifier

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725583, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed 0.745234 on 2026-07-23. Evaluation sample n=1.

2026-07-22

creditHygLqdRatio

HELD · n=1

HYG/LQD printed 0.745477, 2.74 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

0 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 6 have no vote. Component sample n=9.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +0.84% median, 56.0% positive hit rate, and -3.01% worst decile; ES had a +0.80% median, 56.0% positive hit rate, and -3.11% worst decile.

Falsifier

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725583, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed 0.745234 on 2026-07-23. Evaluation sample n=1.

2026-07-22

creditHygLqdRatio

HELD · n=1

HYG/LQD printed 0.745292, 2.72 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

0 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 6 have no vote. Component sample n=9.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +0.89% median, 58.0% positive hit rate, and -3.01% worst decile; ES had a +0.98% median, 60.0% positive hit rate, and -3.11% worst decile.

Falsifier

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725583, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed 0.745234 on 2026-07-23. Evaluation sample n=1.

2026-07-22

creditHygLqdRatio

HELD · n=1

HYG/LQD printed 0.745199, 2.70 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

0 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 6 have no vote. Component sample n=9.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +0.89% median, 58.0% positive hit rate, and -2.83% worst decile; ES had a +0.98% median, 60.0% positive hit rate, and -2.95% worst decile.

Falsifier

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725583, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed 0.745234 on 2026-07-23. Evaluation sample n=1.

2026-07-22

creditHygLqdRatio

HELD · n=1

HYG/LQD printed 0.745477, 2.74 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

0 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 6 have no vote. Component sample n=9.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +0.84% median, 56.0% positive hit rate, and -3.01% worst decile; ES had a +0.80% median, 58.0% positive hit rate, and -3.11% worst decile.

Falsifier

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725583, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed 0.745234 on 2026-07-23. Evaluation sample n=1.

2026-07-22

creditHygLqdRatio

HELD · n=1

HYG/LQD printed 0.744965, 2.67 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

0 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 6 have no vote. Component sample n=9.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +0.95% median, 60.0% positive hit rate, and -2.83% worst decile; ES had a +1.03% median, 62.0% positive hit rate, and -2.95% worst decile.

Falsifier

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725583, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed 0.745234 on 2026-07-23. Evaluation sample n=1.

2026-07-22

creditHygLqdRatio

HELD · n=1

HYG/LQD printed 0.745477, 2.74 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

0 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 6 have no vote. Component sample n=9.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +0.89% median, 58.0% positive hit rate, and -2.83% worst decile; ES had a +0.98% median, 58.0% positive hit rate, and -2.95% worst decile.

Falsifier

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725583, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed 0.745234 on 2026-07-23. Evaluation sample n=1.

2026-07-22

creditHygLqdRatio

HELD · n=1

HYG/LQD printed 0.745477, 2.74 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

0 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 6 have no vote. Component sample n=9.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +0.84% median, 56.0% positive hit rate, and -3.01% worst decile; ES had a +0.80% median, 58.0% positive hit rate, and -3.11% worst decile.

Falsifier

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725583, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed 0.745234 on 2026-07-23. Evaluation sample n=1.

2026-07-22

creditHygLqdRatio

HELD · n=1

HYG/LQD printed 0.744989, 2.68 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

0 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 6 have no vote. Component sample n=9.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +0.95% median, 60.0% positive hit rate, and -2.83% worst decile; ES had a +1.03% median, 62.0% positive hit rate, and -2.95% worst decile.

Falsifier

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725583, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed 0.745234 on 2026-07-23. Evaluation sample n=1.

2026-07-22

creditHygLqdRatio

HELD · n=1

HYG/LQD printed 0.745477, 2.74 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

0 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 6 have no vote. Component sample n=9.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +0.89% median, 58.0% positive hit rate, and -3.01% worst decile; ES had a +0.98% median, 60.0% positive hit rate, and -3.11% worst decile.

Falsifier

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725583, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed 0.745234 on 2026-07-23. Evaluation sample n=1.

2026-07-22

creditHygLqdRatio

HELD · n=1

HYG/LQD printed 0.745324, 2.72 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

0 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 6 have no vote. Component sample n=9.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +0.89% median, 58.0% positive hit rate, and -2.83% worst decile; ES had a +0.98% median, 60.0% positive hit rate, and -2.95% worst decile.

Falsifier

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725583, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed 0.745234 on 2026-07-23. Evaluation sample n=1.

2026-07-22

creditHygLqdRatio

HELD · n=1

HYG/LQD printed 0.745185, 2.70 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

0 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 6 have no vote. Component sample n=9.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +0.89% median, 58.0% positive hit rate, and -2.83% worst decile; ES had a +0.98% median, 60.0% positive hit rate, and -2.95% worst decile.

Falsifier

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725583, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed 0.745234 on 2026-07-23. Evaluation sample n=1.

2026-07-22

creditHygLqdRatio

HELD · n=1

HYG/LQD printed 0.744989, 2.68 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

0 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 6 have no vote. Component sample n=9.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +0.95% median, 60.0% positive hit rate, and -2.83% worst decile; ES had a +1.03% median, 62.0% positive hit rate, and -2.95% worst decile.

Falsifier

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725583, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed 0.745234 on 2026-07-23. Evaluation sample n=1.

2026-07-22

creditHygLqdRatio

HELD · n=1

HYG/LQD printed 0.745315, 2.72 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

0 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 6 have no vote. Component sample n=9.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +0.89% median, 58.0% positive hit rate, and -2.83% worst decile; ES had a +0.98% median, 58.0% positive hit rate, and -2.95% worst decile.

Falsifier

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725583, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed 0.745234 on 2026-07-23. Evaluation sample n=1.

2026-07-17

creditHygLqdRatio

HELD · n=1

HYG/LQD printed 0.741319, 2.26 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

2 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 4 have no vote. Component sample n=9.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +0.64% median, 56.0% positive hit rate, and -2.75% worst decile; ES had a +0.81% median, 56.0% positive hit rate, and -2.85% worst decile.

Falsifier

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725445, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed 0.743241 on 2026-07-20. Evaluation sample n=1.

2026-07-17

creditHygLqdRatio

HELD · n=1

HYG/LQD printed 0.742426, 2.45 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

2 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 4 have no vote. Component sample n=9.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +0.89% median, 58.0% positive hit rate, and -2.56% worst decile; ES had a +0.87% median, 58.0% positive hit rate, and -2.83% worst decile.

Falsifier

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725403, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed 0.743241 on 2026-07-20. Evaluation sample n=1.

2026-07-17

creditHygLqdRatio

HELD · n=1

HYG/LQD printed 0.740517, 2.15 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

2 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 4 have no vote. Component sample n=9.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +0.64% median, 56.0% positive hit rate, and -2.75% worst decile; ES had a +0.81% median, 56.0% positive hit rate, and -2.85% worst decile.

Falsifier

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725445, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed 0.743241 on 2026-07-20. Evaluation sample n=1.

2026-07-17

creditHygLqdRatio

HELD · n=1

HYG/LQD printed 0.741125, 2.23 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

2 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 4 have no vote. Component sample n=9.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +0.64% median, 56.0% positive hit rate, and -2.75% worst decile; ES had a +0.81% median, 58.0% positive hit rate, and -2.85% worst decile.

Falsifier

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725445, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed 0.743241 on 2026-07-20. Evaluation sample n=1.

2026-07-17

creditHygLqdRatio

HELD · n=1

HYG/LQD printed 0.741321, 2.26 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

2 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 4 have no vote. Component sample n=9.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +0.64% median, 56.0% positive hit rate, and -2.75% worst decile; ES had a +0.81% median, 58.0% positive hit rate, and -2.85% worst decile.

Falsifier

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725445, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed 0.743241 on 2026-07-20. Evaluation sample n=1.

2026-07-17

creditHygLqdRatio

HELD · n=1

HYG/LQD printed 0.740517, 2.15 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

2 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 4 have no vote. Component sample n=9.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +0.64% median, 56.0% positive hit rate, and -2.75% worst decile; ES had a +0.81% median, 56.0% positive hit rate, and -2.85% worst decile.

Falsifier

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725445, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed 0.743241 on 2026-07-20. Evaluation sample n=1.

2026-07-17

creditHygLqdRatio

HELD · n=1

HYG/LQD printed 0.740517, 2.15 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

2 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 4 have no vote. Component sample n=9.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a -0.10% median, 48.0% positive hit rate, and -2.75% worst decile; ES had a -0.29% median, 48.0% positive hit rate, and -2.85% worst decile.

Falsifier

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725445, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed 0.743241 on 2026-07-20. Evaluation sample n=1.

2026-07-17

creditHygLqdRatio

HELD · n=1

HYG/LQD printed 0.740517, 2.15 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

2 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 4 have no vote. Component sample n=9.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a -0.10% median, 48.0% positive hit rate, and -2.75% worst decile; ES had a -0.29% median, 48.0% positive hit rate, and -2.85% worst decile.

Falsifier

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725445, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed 0.743241 on 2026-07-20. Evaluation sample n=1.

2026-07-17

creditHygLqdRatio

HELD · n=1

HYG/LQD printed 0.741125, 2.23 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

2 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 4 have no vote. Component sample n=9.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +0.64% median, 56.0% positive hit rate, and -2.75% worst decile; ES had a +0.81% median, 58.0% positive hit rate, and -2.85% worst decile.

Falsifier

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725445, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed 0.743241 on 2026-07-20. Evaluation sample n=1.

2026-07-17

creditHygLqdRatio

HELD · n=1

HYG/LQD printed 0.740517, 2.15 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

2 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 4 have no vote. Component sample n=9.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a -0.10% median, 48.0% positive hit rate, and -2.75% worst decile; ES had a -0.29% median, 48.0% positive hit rate, and -2.85% worst decile.

Falsifier

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725445, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed 0.743241 on 2026-07-20. Evaluation sample n=1.

2026-07-17

creditHygLqdRatio

HELD · n=1

HYG/LQD printed 0.740517, 2.15 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

2 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 4 have no vote. Component sample n=9.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a -0.10% median, 48.0% positive hit rate, and -2.75% worst decile; ES had a -0.29% median, 48.0% positive hit rate, and -2.85% worst decile.

Falsifier

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725445, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed 0.743241 on 2026-07-20. Evaluation sample n=1.

2026-07-17

creditHygLqdRatio

HELD · n=1

HYG/LQD printed 0.740517, 2.15 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

2 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 4 have no vote. Component sample n=9.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a -0.10% median, 48.0% positive hit rate, and -2.75% worst decile; ES had a -0.29% median, 48.0% positive hit rate, and -2.85% worst decile.

Falsifier

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725445, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed 0.743241 on 2026-07-20. Evaluation sample n=1.

2026-07-17

creditHygLqdRatio

HELD · n=1

HYG/LQD printed 0.741297, 2.26 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

2 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 4 have no vote. Component sample n=9.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +0.64% median, 56.0% positive hit rate, and -2.75% worst decile; ES had a +0.81% median, 58.0% positive hit rate, and -2.85% worst decile.

Falsifier

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725445, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed 0.743241 on 2026-07-20. Evaluation sample n=1.

2026-07-16

creditHygLqdRatio

HELD · n=1

HYG/LQD printed 0.742494, 2.46 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

1 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 5 have no vote. Component sample n=9.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +0.68% median, 56.0% positive hit rate, and -2.56% worst decile; ES had a +0.64% median, 56.0% positive hit rate, and -2.83% worst decile.

Falsifier

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725403, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed 0.74013 on 2026-07-17. Evaluation sample n=1.

2026-07-16

creditHygLqdRatio

HELD · n=1

HYG/LQD printed 0.742886, 2.52 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

2 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 4 have no vote. Component sample n=9.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +0.99% median, 60.0% positive hit rate, and -2.56% worst decile; ES had a +1.02% median, 60.0% positive hit rate, and -2.83% worst decile.

Falsifier

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725403, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed 0.74013 on 2026-07-17. Evaluation sample n=1.

2026-07-16

creditHygLqdRatio

HELD · n=1

HYG/LQD printed 0.742518, 2.46 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

2 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 4 have no vote. Component sample n=9.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +0.89% median, 58.0% positive hit rate, and -2.56% worst decile; ES had a +0.87% median, 58.0% positive hit rate, and -2.83% worst decile.

Falsifier

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725403, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed 0.74013 on 2026-07-17. Evaluation sample n=1.

2026-07-16

creditHygLqdRatio

HELD · n=1

HYG/LQD printed 0.742531, 2.46 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

2 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 4 have no vote. Component sample n=9.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +0.89% median, 58.0% positive hit rate, and -2.56% worst decile; ES had a +0.87% median, 58.0% positive hit rate, and -2.83% worst decile.

Falsifier

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725403, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed 0.74013 on 2026-07-17. Evaluation sample n=1.

2026-07-16

creditHygLqdRatio

HELD · n=1

HYG/LQD printed 0.741866, 2.40 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

0 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 6 have no vote. Component sample n=9.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +1.01% median, 58.0% positive hit rate, and -2.78% worst decile; ES had a +1.11% median, 60.0% positive hit rate, and -2.91% worst decile.

Falsifier

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725360, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed 0.74013 on 2026-07-17. Evaluation sample n=1.

2026-07-16

creditHygLqdRatio

HELD · n=1

HYG/LQD printed 0.742425, 2.45 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

2 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 4 have no vote. Component sample n=9.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +0.89% median, 58.0% positive hit rate, and -2.56% worst decile; ES had a +0.87% median, 58.0% positive hit rate, and -2.83% worst decile.

Falsifier

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725403, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed 0.74013 on 2026-07-17. Evaluation sample n=1.

2026-07-16

creditHygLqdRatio

HELD · n=1

HYG/LQD printed 0.741866, 2.40 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

0 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 6 have no vote. Component sample n=9.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +1.01% median, 58.0% positive hit rate, and -2.78% worst decile; ES had a +1.11% median, 60.0% positive hit rate, and -2.91% worst decile.

Falsifier

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725360, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed 0.74013 on 2026-07-17. Evaluation sample n=1.

2026-07-16

creditHygLqdRatio

HELD · n=1

HYG/LQD printed 0.742426, 2.45 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

2 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 4 have no vote. Component sample n=9.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +0.89% median, 58.0% positive hit rate, and -2.56% worst decile; ES had a +0.87% median, 58.0% positive hit rate, and -2.83% worst decile.

Falsifier

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725403, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed 0.74013 on 2026-07-17. Evaluation sample n=1.

2026-07-16

creditHygLqdRatio

HELD · n=1

HYG/LQD printed 0.741866, 2.40 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

0 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 6 have no vote. Component sample n=9.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +1.01% median, 58.0% positive hit rate, and -2.78% worst decile; ES had a +1.11% median, 60.0% positive hit rate, and -2.91% worst decile.

Falsifier

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725360, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed 0.74013 on 2026-07-17. Evaluation sample n=1.

2026-07-16

creditHygLqdRatio

HELD · n=1

HYG/LQD printed 0.741866, 2.40 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

0 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 6 have no vote. Component sample n=9.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +1.01% median, 58.0% positive hit rate, and -2.78% worst decile; ES had a +1.11% median, 60.0% positive hit rate, and -2.91% worst decile.

Falsifier

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725360, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed 0.74013 on 2026-07-17. Evaluation sample n=1.

2026-07-16

creditHygLqdRatio

HELD · n=1

HYG/LQD printed 0.741866, 2.40 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

0 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 6 have no vote. Component sample n=9.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +1.01% median, 58.0% positive hit rate, and -2.78% worst decile; ES had a +1.11% median, 60.0% positive hit rate, and -2.91% worst decile.

Falsifier

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725360, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed 0.74013 on 2026-07-17. Evaluation sample n=1.

2026-07-15

creditHygLqdRatio

HELD · n=1

HYG/LQD printed 0.743455, 2.72 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

2 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 4 have no vote. Component sample n=9.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +0.89% median, 58.0% positive hit rate, and -2.75% worst decile; ES had a +1.02% median, 60.0% positive hit rate, and -2.85% worst decile.

Falsifier

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725244, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed 0.741937 on 2026-07-16. Evaluation sample n=1.

2026-07-15

creditHygLqdRatio

HELD · n=1

HYG/LQD printed 0.741866, 2.40 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

0 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 6 have no vote. Component sample n=9.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +1.01% median, 58.0% positive hit rate, and -2.78% worst decile; ES had a +1.11% median, 60.0% positive hit rate, and -2.91% worst decile.

Falsifier

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725360, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed 0.741937 on 2026-07-16. Evaluation sample n=1.

2026-07-15

creditHygLqdRatio

HELD · n=1

HYG/LQD printed 0.743455, 2.72 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

2 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 4 have no vote. Component sample n=9.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +0.89% median, 58.0% positive hit rate, and -2.75% worst decile; ES had a +1.02% median, 60.0% positive hit rate, and -2.85% worst decile.

Falsifier

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725244, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed 0.741937 on 2026-07-16. Evaluation sample n=1.

2026-07-15

creditHygLqdRatio

HELD · n=1

HYG/LQD printed 0.743455, 2.72 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

2 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 4 have no vote. Component sample n=9.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +0.89% median, 58.0% positive hit rate, and -2.75% worst decile; ES had a +1.02% median, 60.0% positive hit rate, and -2.85% worst decile.

Falsifier

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725244, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed 0.741937 on 2026-07-16. Evaluation sample n=1.

2026-07-15

creditHygLqdRatio

HELD · n=1

HYG/LQD printed 0.743455, 2.72 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

2 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 4 have no vote. Component sample n=9.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +0.89% median, 58.0% positive hit rate, and -2.75% worst decile; ES had a +1.02% median, 60.0% positive hit rate, and -2.85% worst decile.

Falsifier

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725244, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed 0.741937 on 2026-07-16. Evaluation sample n=1.

2026-07-15

creditHygLqdRatio

HELD · n=1

HYG/LQD printed 0.743455, 2.72 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

2 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 4 have no vote. Component sample n=9.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +0.89% median, 58.0% positive hit rate, and -2.75% worst decile; ES had a +1.02% median, 60.0% positive hit rate, and -2.85% worst decile.

Falsifier

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725244, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed 0.741937 on 2026-07-16. Evaluation sample n=1.

2026-07-14

creditHygLqdRatio

HELD · n=1

HYG/LQD printed 0.742853, 2.58 standard deviations above its prior 252-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.

0 components agree with the risk-on direction, 3 disagree, and 6 have no vote. Component sample n=9.

Across n=50 analogs, SPX +21-session returns had a +1.01% median, 60.0% positive hit rate, and -2.32% worst decile; ES had a +1.11% median, 62.0% positive hit rate, and -2.10% worst decile.

Falsifier

The read is invalid if HYG/LQD records at or below 0.725310, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=252 observations, on its next daily print.

Observed 0.741478 on 2026-07-15. Evaluation sample n=1.

This edge · UTC window2026-08-22
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ask_desk0
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explain_signal0
0 ok0 failedNo calls in this window
find_analogs0
0 ok0 failedNo calls in this window
get_13f0
0 ok0 failedNo calls in this window
get_brief0
0 ok0 failedNo calls in this window
get_calendar0
0 ok0 failedNo calls in this window
get_congress_trades0
0 ok0 failedNo calls in this window
get_dataset0
0 ok0 failedNo calls in this window
get_quote0
0 ok0 failedNo calls in this window
get_regime0
0 ok0 failedNo calls in this window
get_signal_performance0
0 ok0 failedNo calls in this window
get_state_vector0
0 ok0 failedNo calls in this window
get_symbol0
0 ok0 failedNo calls in this window
run_screen0
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