Rates.
The price of money, end to end: the Treasury curve and its inversions, the Fed's net liquidity, and how tight financial conditions actually are. Every formula printed, every source named.
The curve
The Treasury curve.
US Treasury constant-maturity yields, %
Preparing the curve …
Source: U.S. Treasury
Inversion tracker
Preparing spreads …
Financial stress
NFCI is the Chicago Fed's National Financial Conditions Index; STLFSI4 is the St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index. Both read above zero when financial conditions are tighter than average. HY OAS is the ICE BofA US High-Yield option-adjusted spread: the extra yield investors demand to hold junk bonds.
Net liquidity
Net liquidity is updating.
Fed balance sheet minus TGA minus reverse repo, $ trillions
Source: FRED (WALCL, WTREGEN, RRPONTSYD)
Net liquidity = WALCL − WTREGEN − RRPONTSYD: Fed total assets, less the Treasury General Account (the government cash held at the Fed), less the overnight reverse-repo balance. Weekly series forward-filled onto the daily grid.
Recession signals
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Economic surprise
The releases that move the tape.
High-impact US data on the calendar, next out first
Source: Fed · BLS · BEA published schedules
The prints the desk clears the deck for: FOMC decisions, CPI, payrolls, GDP and PCE, straight from the agencies' own published calendars.
Treasury auctions
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