{"schemaVersion":1,"kind":"analogs","asOf":"2026-07-16","sourceSchemaVersion":1,"sourceUrl":"/data/analog-engine.json","methodologyUrl":"/methodology/#analog-engine","integrity":{"algorithm":"sha256","canonicalization":"SHA-256 of UTF-8 JSON.stringify(payload)","payloadSha256":"42100805449a9876714ef0a40c54ec59772e2ff1270fea5379e9acfb43f51fcf"},"payload":{"schemaVersion":1,"asOf":"2026-07-16","label":"Conditional history, not prediction.","methodologyUrl":"/methodology/#analog-engine","metric":{"id":"rolling-cosine","formula":"Cosine distance over shared finite dimensions after each date is standardized against only its prior 252 sessions."},"parameters":{"requestedAnalogs":50,"returnedAnalogs":50,"standardizationLookback":252,"minStandardizationSample":60,"minSharedDimensions":18,"separationSessions":5},"current":{"date":"2026-07-16","standardizedDimensions":23,"usableDimensions":["regimeComposite","vixTermStructurePct","curve2s10sBps","curve5s30sBps","cotCommercialPercentile.ES","cotCommercialPercentile.NQ","cotCommercialPercentile.YM","cotCommercialPercentile.RTY","cotCommercialPercentile.GC","cotCommercialPercentile.SI","cotCommercialPercentile.HG","cotCommercialPercentile.CL","cotCommercialPercentile.NG","cotCommercialPercentile.ZB","cotCommercialPercentile.ZN","cotCommercialPercentile.ZF","cotCommercialPercentile.EURUSD","cotCommercialPercentile.GBPUSD","cotCommercialPercentile.USDJPY","cotCommercialPercentile.BTC","creditHygLqdRatio","dollarIndex","breadth"],"excludedDimensions":["netGex","maxPainDistancePct"]},"analogs":[{"date":"2026-05-05","distance":0.285939,"dimensionsCompared":23,"returns":{"SPX":{"oneDay":1.458833,"fiveDay":1.952548,"twentyOneDay":4.478303},"ES":{"oneDay":1.403136,"fiveDay":1.910872,"twentyOneDay":4.305465}}},{"date":"2016-09-12","distance":0.29415,"dimensionsCompared":21,"returns":{"SPX":{"oneDay":-1.483067,"fiveDay":-0.922629,"twentyOneDay":-1.033332},"ES":{"oneDay":-1.378272,"fiveDay":-1.181376,"twentyOneDay":-1.250869}}},{"date":"2016-09-21","distance":0.314807,"dimensionsCompared":21,"returns":{"SPX":{"oneDay":0.649978,"fiveDay":0.381394,"twentyOneDay":-1.00688},"ES":{"oneDay":0.556522,"fiveDay":0.324638,"twentyOneDay":-0.997101}}},{"date":"2016-08-30","distance":0.328436,"dimensionsCompared":21,"returns":{"SPX":{"oneDay":-0.237586,"fiveDay":0.461362,"twentyOneDay":-1.148385},"ES":{"oneDay":-0.264337,"fiveDay":0.425238,"twentyOneDay":-1.229744}}},{"date":"2026-06-12","distance":0.337928,"dimensionsCompared":23,"returns":{"SPX":{"oneDay":1.652839,"fiveDay":0.55615,"twentyOneDay":1.896531},"ES":{"oneDay":1.69805,"fiveDay":1.429052,"twentyOneDay":2.464694}}},{"date":"2026-04-23","distance":0.348805,"dimensionsCompared":23,"returns":{"SPX":{"oneDay":0.797369,"fiveDay":1.415366,"twentyOneDay":5.135759},"ES":{"oneDay":0.717435,"fiveDay":1.403374,"twentyOneDay":4.864562}}},{"date":"2023-08-30","distance":0.353143,"dimensionsCompared":23,"returns":{"SPX":{"oneDay":-0.159694,"fiveDay":-1.411557,"twentyOneDay":-5.02385},"ES":{"oneDay":-0.182351,"fiveDay":-1.503012,"twentyOneDay":-4.392993}}},{"date":"2026-05-22","distance":0.355992,"dimensionsCompared":23,"returns":{"SPX":{"oneDay":0.610826,"fiveDay":1.692517,"twentyOneDay":-1.542122},"ES":{"oneDay":0.61407,"fiveDay":1.631958,"twentyOneDay":-0.837672}}},{"date":"2026-05-15","distance":0.361418,"dimensionsCompared":23,"returns":{"SPX":{"oneDay":-0.073567,"fiveDay":0.876969,"twentyOneDay":1.388272},"ES":{"oneDay":-0.087457,"fiveDay":0.790474,"twentyOneDay":1.160483}}},{"date":"2018-05-22","distance":0.38778,"dimensionsCompared":22,"returns":{"SPX":{"oneDay":0.324841,"fiveDay":-0.015781,"twentyOneDay":0.929368},"ES":{"oneDay":0.174248,"fiveDay":-0.055026,"twentyOneDay":0.97212}}},{"date":"2018-06-04","distance":0.387921,"dimensionsCompared":22,"returns":{"SPX":{"oneDay":0.070259,"fiveDay":1.278906,"twentyOneDay":-1.225036},"ES":{"oneDay":0.218539,"fiveDay":1.365871,"twentyOneDay":-1.174649}}},{"date":"2016-10-03","distance":0.391143,"dimensionsCompared":21,"returns":{"SPX":{"oneDay":-0.495556,"fiveDay":0.113824,"twentyOneDay":-2.289468},"ES":{"oneDay":-0.394752,"fiveDay":-0.870777,"twentyOneDay":-2.832927}}},{"date":"2018-06-11","distance":0.405764,"dimensionsCompared":22,"returns":{"SPX":{"oneDay":0.174339,"fiveDay":-0.296549,"twentyOneDay":-0.286843},"ES":{"oneDay":0.035932,"fiveDay":-0.11678,"twentyOneDay":-0.323392}}},{"date":"2026-04-06","distance":0.406175,"dimensionsCompared":23,"returns":{"SPX":{"oneDay":0.075925,"fiveDay":4.150291,"twentyOneDay":9.791391},"ES":{"oneDay":0.086453,"fiveDay":4.085852,"twentyOneDay":9.566231}}},{"date":"2023-09-08","distance":0.408709,"dimensionsCompared":23,"returns":{"SPX":{"oneDay":0.672345,"fiveDay":-0.160862,"twentyOneDay":-2.733154},"ES":{"oneDay":0.638763,"fiveDay":0.671714,"twentyOneDay":-2.084384}}},{"date":"2023-09-18","distance":0.413695,"dimensionsCompared":23,"returns":{"SPX":{"oneDay":-0.215101,"fiveDay":-2.606693,"twentyOneDay":-1.803729},"ES":{"oneDay":-0.25547,"fiveDay":-2.726869,"twentyOneDay":-2.215928}}},{"date":"2016-07-12","distance":0.41814,"dimensionsCompared":21,"returns":{"SPX":{"oneDay":0.013477,"fiveDay":0.540863,"twentyOneDay":1.084971},"ES":{"oneDay":0.011651,"fiveDay":0.605849,"twentyOneDay":1.258301}}},{"date":"2016-08-17","distance":0.421113,"dimensionsCompared":21,"returns":{"SPX":{"oneDay":0.219962,"fiveDay":-0.310694,"twentyOneDay":-1.973223},"ES":{"oneDay":0.172038,"fiveDay":-0.217915,"twentyOneDay":-1.743319}}},{"date":"2026-06-03","distance":0.423885,"dimensionsCompared":23,"returns":{"SPX":{"oneDay":0.405496,"fiveDay":-3.795368,"twentyOneDay":-0.215127},"ES":{"oneDay":0.386304,"fiveDay":-3.872949,"twentyOneDay":0.260838}}},{"date":"2018-06-18","distance":0.425163,"dimensionsCompared":22,"returns":{"SPX":{"oneDay":-0.40234,"fiveDay":-2.043441,"twentyOneDay":1.509513},"ES":{"oneDay":-0.485655,"fiveDay":-2.068531,"twentyOneDay":1.304074}}},{"date":"2018-05-07","distance":0.443629,"dimensionsCompared":22,"returns":{"SPX":{"oneDay":-0.026564,"fiveDay":2.151439,"twentyOneDay":3.731164},"ES":{"oneDay":0.009363,"fiveDay":2.284644,"twentyOneDay":3.829588}}},{"date":"2016-08-08","distance":0.445424,"dimensionsCompared":21,"returns":{"SPX":{"oneDay":0.038979,"fiveDay":0.424598,"twentyOneDay":0.241645},"ES":{"oneDay":0.091933,"fiveDay":0.482648,"twentyOneDay":0.413698}}},{"date":"2018-05-15","distance":0.45524,"dimensionsCompared":22,"returns":{"SPX":{"oneDay":0.406056,"fiveDay":0.479079,"twentyOneDay":2.620002},"ES":{"oneDay":0.516796,"fiveDay":0.627538,"twentyOneDay":2.740864}}},{"date":"2016-07-25","distance":0.460649,"dimensionsCompared":21,"returns":{"SPX":{"oneDay":0.032278,"fiveDay":0.108837,"twentyOneDay":0.849439},"ES":{"oneDay":0.046248,"fiveDay":0.104058,"twentyOneDay":1.063707}}},{"date":"2016-10-21","distance":0.467906,"dimensionsCompared":21,"returns":{"SPX":{"oneDay":0.474984,"fiveDay":-0.688879,"twentyOneDay":2.663043},"ES":{"oneDay":0.445017,"fiveDay":-0.515283,"twentyOneDay":3.068275}}},{"date":"2026-04-13","distance":0.477262,"dimensionsCompared":23,"returns":{"SPX":{"oneDay":1.178287,"fiveDay":3.236888,"twentyOneDay":7.474612},"ES":{"oneDay":1.1845,"fiveDay":3.253765,"twentyOneDay":7.276733}}},{"date":"2023-07-06","distance":0.479504,"dimensionsCompared":23,"returns":{"SPX":{"oneDay":-0.28651,"fiveDay":2.231626,"twentyOneDay":1.506032},"ES":{"oneDay":-0.292332,"fiveDay":2.170002,"twentyOneDay":1.146841}}},{"date":"2023-08-23","distance":0.484632,"dimensionsCompared":23,"returns":{"SPX":{"oneDay":-1.345797,"fiveDay":1.777732,"twentyOneDay":-2.613829},"ES":{"oneDay":-1.371711,"fiveDay":1.737126,"twentyOneDay":-1.933888}}},{"date":"2026-03-26","distance":0.492041,"dimensionsCompared":23,"returns":{"SPX":{"oneDay":-1.672184,"fiveDay":1.62926,"twentyOneDay":10.757029},"ES":{"oneDay":-1.727969,"fiveDay":1.490421,"twentyOneDay":10.436782}}},{"date":"2023-08-14","distance":0.492968,"dimensionsCompared":23,"returns":{"SPX":{"oneDay":-1.155091,"fiveDay":-2.00347,"twentyOneDay":-0.496251},"ES":{"oneDay":-1.154017,"fiveDay":-2.075011,"twentyOneDay":-0.826676}}},{"date":"2012-01-24","distance":0.500474,"dimensionsCompared":21,"returns":{"SPX":{"oneDay":0.867914,"fiveDay":-0.170387,"twentyOneDay":3.71277},"ES":{"oneDay":0.667175,"fiveDay":-0.247808,"twentyOneDay":3.926801}}},{"date":"2016-07-05","distance":0.502402,"dimensionsCompared":21,"returns":{"SPX":{"oneDay":0.535296,"fiveDay":3.044689,"twentyOneDay":3.602499},"ES":{"oneDay":0.540151,"fiveDay":3.024847,"twentyOneDay":3.564998}}},{"date":"2018-04-30","distance":0.504852,"dimensionsCompared":22,"returns":{"SPX":{"oneDay":0.254905,"fiveDay":0.928224,"twentyOneDay":2.868524},"ES":{"oneDay":0.198338,"fiveDay":0.868908,"twentyOneDay":2.927843}}},{"date":"2018-06-26","distance":0.515403,"dimensionsCompared":22,"returns":{"SPX":{"oneDay":-0.860436,"fiveDay":-0.361361,"twentyOneDay":4.200417},"ES":{"oneDay":-0.861279,"fiveDay":-0.558915,"twentyOneDay":4.17812}}},{"date":"2014-12-30","distance":0.517319,"dimensionsCompared":21,"returns":{"SPX":{"oneDay":-1.031086,"fiveDay":-2.617351,"twentyOneDay":-4.103161},"ES":{"oneDay":-1.16769,"fiveDay":-2.756711,"twentyOneDay":-4.249428}}},{"date":"2016-05-24","distance":0.517815,"dimensionsCompared":21,"returns":{"SPX":{"oneDay":0.697474,"fiveDay":1.120874,"twentyOneDay":1.794746},"ES":{"oneDay":0.590361,"fiveDay":1.108434,"twentyOneDay":1.481928}}},{"date":"2015-01-09","distance":0.522011,"dimensionsCompared":21,"returns":{"SPX":{"oneDay":-0.809369,"fiveDay":-1.241681,"twentyOneDay":1.162946},"ES":{"oneDay":-0.626459,"fiveDay":-1.093232,"twentyOneDay":1.326618}}},{"date":"2022-01-10","distance":0.533894,"dimensionsCompared":23,"returns":{"SPX":{"oneDay":0.915998,"fiveDay":-1.995169,"twentyOneDay":-1.779544},"ES":{"oneDay":0.916939,"fiveDay":-1.951847,"twentyOneDay":-1.81243}}},{"date":"2023-09-27","distance":0.534183,"dimensionsCompared":23,"returns":{"SPX":{"oneDay":0.589317,"fiveDay":-0.251719,"twentyOneDay":-3.211591},"ES":{"oneDay":0.556393,"fiveDay":-0.365133,"twentyOneDay":-3.639736}}},{"date":"2015-02-11","distance":0.541039,"dimensionsCompared":21,"returns":{"SPX":{"oneDay":0.964451,"fiveDay":1.398091,"twentyOneDay":-0.731443},"ES":{"oneDay":0.883456,"fiveDay":1.428053,"twentyOneDay":-0.774537}}},{"date":"2016-08-01","distance":0.542477,"dimensionsCompared":21,"returns":{"SPX":{"oneDay":-0.636162,"fiveDay":0.462945,"twentyOneDay":0.243225},"ES":{"oneDay":-0.542851,"fiveDay":0.508201,"twentyOneDay":0.49665}}},{"date":"2021-10-28","distance":0.544617,"dimensionsCompared":23,"returns":{"SPX":{"oneDay":0.194933,"fiveDay":1.81968,"twentyOneDay":1.280346},"ES":{"oneDay":0.207084,"fiveDay":1.86921,"twentyOneDay":1.384196}}},{"date":"2018-07-09","distance":0.547251,"dimensionsCompared":22,"returns":{"SPX":{"oneDay":0.347327,"fiveDay":0.512182,"twentyOneDay":2.667942},"ES":{"oneDay":0.331839,"fiveDay":0.32287,"twentyOneDay":2.591928}}},{"date":"2023-07-24","distance":0.547529,"dimensionsCompared":23,"returns":{"SPX":{"oneDay":0.281467,"fiveDay":0.753513,"twentyOneDay":-3.668574},"ES":{"oneDay":0.272717,"fiveDay":0.676339,"twentyOneDay":-4.019854}}},{"date":"2014-12-19","distance":0.552708,"dimensionsCompared":21,"returns":{"SPX":{"oneDay":0.381046,"fiveDay":0.962025,"twentyOneDay":-0.362205},"ES":{"oneDay":0.363196,"fiveDay":1.004843,"twentyOneDay":-0.411622}}},{"date":"2015-01-26","distance":0.553723,"dimensionsCompared":21,"returns":{"SPX":{"oneDay":-1.338786,"fiveDay":-1.761717,"twentyOneDay":2.759725},"ES":{"oneDay":-1.144388,"fiveDay":-1.777453,"twentyOneDay":2.763574}}},{"date":"2014-09-17","distance":0.557387,"dimensionsCompared":21,"returns":{"SPX":{"oneDay":0.489118,"fiveDay":-0.163367,"twentyOneDay":-6.935053},"ES":{"oneDay":0.537097,"fiveDay":-0.524607,"twentyOneDay":-7.544342}}},{"date":"2012-01-11","distance":0.561215,"dimensionsCompared":21,"returns":{"SPX":{"oneDay":0.233661,"fiveDay":1.703703,"twentyOneDay":3.880914},"ES":{"oneDay":0.271686,"fiveDay":1.727149,"twentyOneDay":4.05589}}},{"date":"2013-04-22","distance":0.56161,"dimensionsCompared":21,"returns":{"SPX":{"oneDay":1.041922,"fiveDay":1.991039,"twentyOneDay":6.826242},"ES":{"oneDay":1.124679,"fiveDay":2.072622,"twentyOneDay":7.037275}}},{"date":"2016-06-21","distance":0.562717,"dimensionsCompared":21,"returns":{"SPX":{"oneDay":-0.165156,"fiveDay":-2.528122,"twentyOneDay":3.651205},"ES":{"oneDay":-0.180245,"fiveDay":-2.499399,"twentyOneDay":3.725066}}}],"distributions":{"SPX":{"oneDay":{"n":50,"hitRate":64,"hitRateInterval95":[50.141017,75.86125],"median":0.207448,"worstDecile":-1.043486,"minimum":-1.672184,"maximum":1.652839,"histogram":[{"lower":-1.672184,"upper":-1.339682,"count":3},{"lower":-1.339682,"upper":-1.007179,"count":3},{"lower":-1.007179,"upper":-0.674677,"count":2},{"lower":-0.674677,"upper":-0.342175,"count":3},{"lower":-0.342175,"upper":-0.009672,"count":7},{"lower":-0.009672,"upper":0.32283,"count":11},{"lower":0.32283,"upper":0.655332,"count":11},{"lower":0.655332,"upper":0.987834,"count":6},{"lower":0.987834,"upper":1.320337,"count":2},{"lower":1.320337,"upper":1.652839,"count":2}]},"fiveDay":{"n":50,"hitRate":60,"hitRateInterval95":[46.181438,72.39161],"median":0.462154,"worstDecile":-2.007467,"minimum":-3.795368,"maximum":4.150291,"histogram":[{"lower":-3.795368,"upper":-3.000802,"count":1},{"lower":-3.000802,"upper":-2.206236,"count":3},{"lower":-2.206236,"upper":-1.41167,"count":4},{"lower":-1.41167,"upper":-0.617104,"count":4},{"lower":-0.617104,"upper":0.177462,"count":10},{"lower":0.177462,"upper":0.972027,"count":12},{"lower":0.972027,"upper":1.766593,"count":7},{"lower":1.766593,"upper":2.561159,"count":6},{"lower":2.561159,"upper":3.355725,"count":2},{"lower":3.355725,"upper":4.150291,"count":1}]},"twentyOneDay":{"n":50,"hitRate":58,"hitRateInterval95":[44.233442,70.624997],"median":1.007169,"worstDecile":-2.780998,"minimum":-6.935053,"maximum":10.757029,"histogram":[{"lower":-6.935053,"upper":-5.165845,"count":1},{"lower":-5.165845,"upper":-3.396637,"count":3},{"lower":-3.396637,"upper":-1.627428,"count":7},{"lower":-1.627428,"upper":0.14178,"count":10},{"lower":0.14178,"upper":1.910988,"count":12},{"lower":1.910988,"upper":3.680196,"count":7},{"lower":3.680196,"upper":5.449404,"count":6},{"lower":5.449404,"upper":7.218613,"count":1},{"lower":7.218613,"upper":8.987821,"count":1},{"lower":8.987821,"upper":10.757029,"count":2}]}},"ES":{"oneDay":{"n":50,"hitRate":66,"hitRateInterval95":[52.153826,77.563051],"median":0.186293,"worstDecile":-1.145351,"minimum":-1.727969,"maximum":1.69805,"histogram":[{"lower":-1.727969,"upper":-1.385367,"count":1},{"lower":-1.385367,"upper":-1.042765,"count":5},{"lower":-1.042765,"upper":-0.700163,"count":1},{"lower":-0.700163,"upper":-0.357561,"count":4},{"lower":-0.357561,"upper":-0.01496,"count":6},{"lower":-0.01496,"upper":0.327642,"count":13},{"lower":0.327642,"upper":0.670244,"count":13},{"lower":0.670244,"upper":1.012846,"count":3},{"lower":1.012846,"upper":1.355448,"count":2},{"lower":1.355448,"upper":1.69805,"count":2}]},"fiveDay":{"n":50,"hitRate":60,"hitRateInterval95":[46.181438,72.39161],"median":0.495425,"worstDecile":-2.069179,"minimum":-3.872949,"maximum":4.085852,"histogram":[{"lower":-3.872949,"upper":-3.077069,"count":1},{"lower":-3.077069,"upper":-2.281189,"count":3},{"lower":-2.281189,"upper":-1.485309,"count":5},{"lower":-1.485309,"upper":-0.689429,"count":3},{"lower":-0.689429,"upper":0.106451,"count":9},{"lower":0.106451,"upper":0.902332,"count":11},{"lower":0.902332,"upper":1.698212,"count":8},{"lower":1.698212,"upper":2.494092,"count":7},{"lower":2.494092,"upper":3.289972,"count":2},{"lower":3.289972,"upper":4.085852,"count":1}]},"twentyOneDay":{"n":50,"hitRate":60,"hitRateInterval95":[46.181438,72.39161],"median":1.105274,"worstDecile":-2.913608,"minimum":-7.544342,"maximum":10.436782,"histogram":[{"lower":-7.544342,"upper":-5.74623,"count":1},{"lower":-5.74623,"upper":-3.948117,"count":3},{"lower":-3.948117,"upper":-2.150005,"count":3},{"lower":-2.150005,"upper":-0.351892,"count":12},{"lower":-0.351892,"upper":1.44622,"count":12},{"lower":1.44622,"upper":3.244332,"count":7},{"lower":3.244332,"upper":5.042445,"count":8},{"lower":5.042445,"upper":6.840557,"count":0},{"lower":6.840557,"upper":8.63867,"count":2},{"lower":8.63867,"upper":10.436782,"count":2}]}}},"coverage":{"start":"2007-01-03","end":"2026-07-16","historyRows":4914,"candidatesCompared":4853,"candidatesWithForwardReturns":4830,"earliestSelected":"2012-01-11","latestSelected":"2026-06-12"},"sources":{"SPX":"S&P 500 Index daily close via Yahoo Finance","ES":"E-mini S&P 500 continuous futures adjusted daily close via Yahoo Finance"}}}
