{"schemaVersion":3,"generatedAt":1787486490,"asOf":"2026-08-23","temporalCoverage":{"publicationDate":"2026-08-23","latestCompleteObservationDate":"2026-08-20","latestConstituentObservationDate":"2026-08-23","capturedAt":1787486490},"methodologyUrl":"/methodology/#daily-thesis","anomaly":{"dimension":"cotCommercialPercentile.GBPUSD","componentId":"cotCommercialPercentile","label":"COT commercial percentile (GBPUSD)","value":40,"unit":"percentile","zScore":-2.963243,"absoluteZScore":2.963243,"percentileRank":0,"sampleSize":52,"observationDate":"2026-08-18","direction":"risk_off","sentence":"COT commercial percentile (GBPUSD) printed 40.0 percentile, 2.96 standard deviations below its prior 52-observation mean, the largest absolute state-vector z-score.","source":"CFTC Legacy Futures-Only","sourceUrl":"https://publicreporting.cftc.gov/resource/6dca-aqww.json","formula":"Commercial net position percentile within the trailing 52 published weekly observations, computed per contract.","methodologyUrl":"/methodology/#confluence-engine"},"confluence":{"thresholdAbsoluteZ":0.5,"rule":"Transform each mapped component z-score into risk direction and count absolute component z-scores below 0.50 as no vote. 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date is standardized against only its prior 252 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read is invalid if COT commercial percentile (GBPUSD) records at or above 77.2 percentile, the z=0.00 level from the prior n=52 observations, on its next weekly print.","operator":"at_or_above","thresholdValue":77.211538,"thresholdZScore":0,"currentValue":40,"unit":"percentile","cadence":"weekly","observationCount":52,"evidence":{"source":"CFTC Legacy Futures-Only","sourceUrl":"https://publicreporting.cftc.gov/resource/6dca-aqww.json","formula":"Commercial net position percentile within the trailing 52 published weekly observations, computed per contract.","methodologyUrl":"/methodology/#confluence-engine"}},"comparison":{"status":"available","previousAsOf":"2026-08-12","previousArtifactUrl":"/data/machine/v1/archive/2026-08-12/daily-thesis.e92a56857d80672af64347c3f6377eeb63d08cecd0deda1a259b734ddf38b01d.json","currentArtifactUrl":"/data/daily-thesis.json","summary":"10 observable changes since the prior completed thesis.","changes":[{"id":"direction","kind":"direction","label":"Market lean changed","detail":"Risk-on became risk-off."},{"id":"anomaly-dimension","kind":"anomaly","label":"Most unusual signal changed","detail":"HYG/LQD was replaced by COT commercial percentile (GBPUSD)."},{"id":"reversal-curve5s30sBps","kind":"reversal","label":"5s30s reversed","detail":"The component changed from contradictory to supportive."},{"id":"reversal-regimeComposite","kind":"reversal","label":"Regime composite reversed","detail":"The component changed from supportive to contradictory."},{"id":"reversal-breadth","kind":"reversal","label":"Breadth reversed","detail":"The component changed from supportive to contradictory."},{"id":"reversal-dollarIndex","kind":"reversal","label":"Broad dollar reversed","detail":"The component changed from supportive to contradictory."},{"id":"reversal-vixTermStructurePct","kind":"reversal","label":"VIX term structure slope reversed","detail":"The component changed from supportive to contradictory."},{"id":"deactivation-curve2s10sBps","kind":"deactivation","label":"2s10s lost its vote","detail":"The component moved below the published vote threshold or lost sufficient coverage."},{"id":"agreement-counts","kind":"agreement","label":"Evidence balance changed","detail":"4 agree, 2 disagree, 3 no vote became 1 agree, 5 disagree, 3 no vote."},{"id":"coverage-date","kind":"coverage","label":"Complete observation window advanced","detail":"2026-08-10 became 2026-08-20."}]},"downloads":{"thesis":"/data/daily-thesis.json","confluence":"/data/confluence-vector.json","analogs":"/data/analog-engine.json","falsification":"/data/falsification-ledger.json"}}